Gendered migration patterns and fertility among refugees en route

Gender patterns in migration processes and in migrant fertility are a growing research field. We contribute to this literature by examining refugees, an understudied group in demographic research. Our theoretical framework is informed by theories of migrant fertility and migration processes. Using data from the 2020 survey ‘Forced Migration and Transnational Family Arrangements—Eritrean and Syrian Refugees in Germany’ (TransFAR), we conduct sequence analysis and multivariable event-history analysis. We examine transitions to first births among women and men who were childless when leaving their country of origin (Eritrea or Syria), as well as transitions to subsequent births for those who were already parents upon departing. Our results show that women have higher transition rates to first births compared to men, while men have increased rates to subsequent births. The likelihood of a first birth increases during prolonged transit periods and, in particular, after arrival in the destination country (Germany). The chances for a subsequent birth are highest after arrival in Germany, after an initial phase of very low fertility. While we found no significant differences by country of origin among women, men from Syria have greater higher-order birth risks than Eritrean men. Our findings indicate that the stage in the migration trajectory and gendered couple migration patterns play the most significant role in refugees' fertility behaviour.